The past two years saw the Best Picture winning films receiving seven Oscars. This year could potentially continue that streak, with “Emilia Perez,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave” and “Wicked” all scoring eight or more nominations. Will we get another Oscar sweeper similar to “Oppenheimer” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once?” Here are my picks and predictions for what I want to win and what I believe will win every category at the 97th Academy Awards.
Best Picture
Pick: “The Substance”
Prediction: “Anora”
Upset: “Conclave”
For a while, the Best Picture race looked like it was very up in the air. With “Emilia Pérez” and “The Brutalist” winning Best Picture Comedy/Musical and Best Picture Drama Golden Globe and “Conclave” winning the BAFTA, it was difficult to choose a front-runner for the award. After winning the Critic’s Choice, DGA award, WGA award and PGA award, “Anora” emerged as the easy front-runner. The last film to win these awards and lose Best Picture was “Brokeback Mountain” over 20 years ago. Although I originally thought this would be a hard category to predict, “Anora’s” major guild support makes me believe it will win the top prize.
Director
Pick: “The Substance”
Prediction: “Anora”
Upset: “The Brutalist”
I originally thought that Brady Corbet would be a shoo-in to win this category. The level of ambition he brought to “The Brutalist” had many claim the film as a new American masterpiece. After Sean Baker won the Director’s Guild award, I changed my mind completely. With “Anora” being the front-runner for Best Picture and the long career that Baker has made for himself, I believe the Academy will want to award him. Corbet still has a good chance of winning, but I believe his newcomer status will keep him from taking home the award.
Actor in a Leading Role
Pick: Coleman Domingo in “Sing Sing”
Prediction: Adrien Brody in “The Brutalist”
Upset: Timothée Chalamet in “A Complete Unknown”
Although I don’t believe “The Brutalist” will win the Best Picture prize, I think it will pick up many wins, Best Actor included. Adrien Brody has a fantastic narrative to win as he is the protagonist of the three-and-a-half-hour epic that scored 10 Oscar nominations. That being said, there is a lot of goodwill toward Timothée Chalamet in “A Complete Unknown.” If Chalamet wins, he will be the youngest Best Actor winner ever. With his recent win at the SAG awards, I can easily see him pulling an upset.
Actress in a Leading Role
Pick: Demi Moore in “The Substance”
Prediction: Demi Moore in “The Substance”
Upset: Mikey Madison in “Anora”
Best Actress has become a difficult category to predict. Demi Moore has many major precursor wins, including the SAG, Critic’s Choice and Golden Globe Awards. Mikey Madison won the BAFTA award and is headlining the likely Best Picture winner. Although the BAFTA winner has a higher correlation with the Oscar winner, I am sticking with Demi Moore, since she has a major career narrative and her film got many major nominations above-the-line. Although Madison is fantastic, the fact that it is her big breakout role makes me believe they will go with the more seasoned actress.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Pick: Kieran Culkin in “A Real Pain”
Prediction: Kieran Culkin in “A Real Pain”
Upset: Edward Norton in “A Complete Unknown”
Since 2011, this category has awarded actors who are in a Best Picture nominee. This year, I am swaying away from that stat to predict Kieran Culkin. After winning every major precursor and the massive acclaim he received from his role in “Succession,” there are many people who would love to see him awarded this year. As for an actor in a Best Picture nominee who could upset, I believe it is Edward Norton in “A Complete Unknown,” as he has yet to win an Oscar and he had a lot of prosthetic work, which the Academy is famously known for awarding.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Pick: Zoe Saldaña in “Emilia Pérez”
Prediction: Zoe Saldaña in “Emilia Pérez”
Upset: Ariana Grande-Butera in “Wicked”
“Emilia Pérez” might be the most controversial Oscar film in a decade. Whether it's the controversial tweets and interviews from director Jaques Audiard and Karla Sofia Gascon or the questionable depiction of Mexican culture, no film has more hatred at this year’s awards. That being said, I believe Zoe Saldaña is likely to win the Oscar. Saldaña has not only won every major precursor, but she has successfully managed to stay away from the film’s controversy. She also has a major career narrative as she has acted in major blockbusters like “Avatar” and the “Guardians of the Galaxy” franchise for decades without any awards recognition. Ariana Grande-Butera has a lot of passion from “Wicked” fans, but because it is one of her first big Hollywood films, I don’t think the Academy will award her.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Pick: “Sing Sing”
Prediction: “Conclave”
Upset: “A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave” has won almost all the major precursors, making it very easy to predict in this category. The film also won the Best Screenplay prize at the Golden Globes, which is a category where they don’t split between original and adapted screenplays. Though there are other Best Picture nominees that could be awarded here, I don’t think any of them are as strong as “Conclave.”
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Pick: “The Substance”
Prediction: “Anora”
Upset: “The Substance”
This is also one of the hardest categories to predict. “Anora” won the WGA award, “The Substance” won the Critic’s Choice award and “A Real Pain” won the BAFTA. This split makes it incredibly difficult to choose, but I am settling with “Anora” as I believe it is the most loved film of the nominees and it is the frontrunner for Best Picture. I see “The Substance” as a potential upset as it is easily the most “original” of the nominees and it would align well with past winners such as “Get Out” and “Promising Young Woman.”
Animated Feature
Pick: “Inside Out 2”
Prediction: “The Wild Robot”
Upset: “Flow”
This awards season has failed to find a runaway favorite to win. With “Flow” winning the Golden Globe, “The Wild Robot” winning at the Critic’s Choice Awards, and “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” winning at the BAFTAs, this award could go to anyone. I am settling for “The Wild Robot” as it has received two other nominations, showing that the Academy has love for the film outside the Animated Feature category. It also won the Annie Award, which is an award voted on by animators in the film industry.
International Feature Film
Pick: “Flow”
Prediction: “I’m Still Here”
Upset: “Emilia Pérez”
Fun fact: this is the first year that two Best International Feature contenders are also up for the Best Picture award. From a glance, you would think “Emilia Pérez” would win the award, as it was the most nominated film at this year’s Oscars. But, I believe that the “Emilia Pérez” discourse will be detrimental to its chances of winning this category. “I’m Still Here” proves to have major support with nominations in Best Picture and Best Actress, so I believe that it will beat “Emilia Pérez.”
Documentary Feature
Pick: “No Other Land
Prediction: “No Other Land”
Upset: “Porcelain War”
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” has been sweeping the documentary prizes across different awards bodies, making its omission from the category one of the year’s biggest snubs. Although it has failed to get distribution rights from an American studio and has yet to win a major televised award, I believe “No Other Land” has the best chance of winning due to its timely subject matter and high critic praise. “Porcelain War” is the other timely documentary that I can see taking home this category.
Here are the picks and predictions for the below-the-line categories.
Cinematography
Pick: “Dune: Part 2”
Prediction: “The Brutalist”
Upset: “Nosferatu”
Costume Design
Pick: “Wicked”
Prediction: “Wicked”
Upset: “Nosferatu”
Documentary Short Film
Pick: “Incident”
Prediction: “Incident”
Upset: “Death by Numbers”
Film Editing
Pick: “The Brutalist”
Prediction: “Conclave”
Upset: “Anora”
Makeup and Hairstyling
Pick: “The Substance”
Prediction: “The Substance”
Upset: “Wicked”
Music (Original Score)
Pick: “The Brutalist”
Prediction: “The Brutalist”
Upset: “Conclave”
Music (Original Song)
Pick: “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
Prediction: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”
Upset: “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight”
Production Design
Pick: “Wicked”
Prediction: “Wicked”
Upset: “The Brutalist”
Animated Short Film
Pick: “In the Shadow of the Cypress”
Prediction: “Yuck!”
Upset: “Wander to Wonder”
Live Action Short Film
Pick: “A Lien”
Prediction: “The Last Ranger”
Upset: “Anuja”
Sound
Pick: “Dune: Part 2”
Prediction: “Dune: Part 2”
Upset: “Wicked”
Visual Effects
Pick: “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
Prediction: “Dune: Part 2”
Upset: “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
Trevor Stucker (he/him) is a senior majoring in Applied Film and Journalism. This is his second year writing for The Campus Citizen. In his spare time, he enjoys writing film reviews for his social media accounts.
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